WASHINGTON (WiMAX Day). The auction of 700 Mhz spectrum by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) needs no introduction as one of the most closely watched spectrum bazaars in recent history.

The auction represents a large and important mass of spectrum available to the highest bidders. Owning spectrum in the 700 Mhz band has attracted players large and small in the business of next-generation data access. If the auction needs no introduction, though, a revenue-hungry FCC thinks it definitely needs a wind-up.

Thus far, the FCC has gathered close to USD 20 billion in bids. This week  the FCC announced it was again pushing the auction ahead. This time, the FCC ordained, there will be a 14-round (up from 10-rounds last week), daily schedule. That means the FCC is conducting 14 rounds of bidding each day. By pushing for more bidding rounds, the idea is for auction fence-sitters to swing into action so the FCC can finalize the whole affair.

Expectations are higher than ever that the auction will be over in days rather than months. The auction ends when there are no more bids. At this stage, few industry insiders expect to faint from shock when the winning bidders’ names are revealed. Their earlier predictions seem more correct than ever.

Google is the case in point. From the start, all eyes were on Google, which announced its entry on the “C-Block,” with the opening bid a minimum of USD 4.6 billion. The question was promptly raised about whether Google was really bidding to win or entering as a contender primarily to petition the FCC to put forth open-access rules that would require vendor-agnostic equipment. Google won on that front, in successfully petitioning the FCC to get any C-Block winner to allow any device or application access to the network.

Few insiders saw Google as actually outbidding titans like Verizon, an aggressive C-Block contender.

Stories were circulating last month that Google had posted its bid for the C-block, while Verizon was counter-strategizing by placing billions upon smaller regional spectrum chunks, but with the end game of topping Goggle’s bid. What’s more, many analysts dismiss the idea of Google paying whatever price it takes to topple aggressive bidders.

“Google’s main objective was to open the network so that its devices would work on it,” analyst Greg Sterling of Sterling Market Intelligence, told WiMAX Day. “I don’t think Google was really prepared for the build-out costs and other infrastructure expenses, if it was to be the winner of the C-Block.”

D, meanwhile, stands for Disappointment on the D-block. After a lot of talk and spirited announcements, Frontline Wireless said it was bowing out of the auction race. Taking on a private operator-public safety partnership in spectrum usage was the aim of Frontline. The reason why that fizzled is believed to be the company’s inability to come up with the money. D-Block license bidding overall has been disappointing; the asking reserve price is USD 1.3 billion. While it is unclear what the D-Block results will be, there has been no shortage of recommendations from those outside the FCC about what steps to take. Suggestions from outsiders range from scrapping the public-private partnership model, with the government coming up with a different business model, to leaving the D-Block as unlicensed.

As for the other blocks of spectrum, assumptions continue, meanwhile, that AT&T and Verizon will leverage the spectrum auction and its requirements in order to maintain wireless supremacy.

Assumptions, however, can’t be verified: The FCC requires that bidders’ identities be kept a secret until the auction is over.

Should assumptions pan out, open-market sensibilities that see innovation and better business models coming from a diverse playing field will be disappointed that the winner’s list portends a more vertical than horizontal wireless ecosystem.

“It would certainly be something of a disappointment and a failure from a certain point of view if AT&T and Verizon were to emerge as the two big winners in the auction,” Sterling said. “Rather than opening up the market it will likely have strengthened the hand of the two biggest US carriers.”